Golden Globe Predictions

Tonight (or later this afternoon for those on the Left coast), the 74th Annual Golden Globe Awards air on NBC, hosted by Jimmy Fallon.  And the Golden Globe winners always provide movie lovers with good chum for the upcoming Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences’ Oscar noms (Jan. 24).

Here are film Golden Globe nominations and my predicted winners:

Best Score

“Arrival”

“Hidden Figures”

“La La Land”

“Lion”

“Moonlight”

Predicted Winner:  “La La Land”. 

This one feels like a no-brainer.  If the popular musical can’t take the top prize in this category, they’re going to have a bad night.  A very bad night.

Best Song

“Can’t Stop The Feeling”, Trolls

“City of Stars”, La La Land

“Faith”, Sing

“Gold”, Gold

“How Far I’ll Go”, Moana

Predicted Winner: “City of Stars”, La La Land

Again, this should be an easy-peasy victory for the song and dance number from director Damien Chazelle. But from here on out, “La La Land” will have a serious fight on its hands in the acting, directing and top movie categories.

Animated Film

“Kubo and the Two Strings”

“Moana”

“My Life As A “Zucchini”

“Sing”

“Zootopia”

Predicted Winner:  “Zootopia” (pictured below)

  A funny and witty movie for all to enjoy!  Never one to underestimate “The Rock”, I would be surprised if “Moana” mounted a serious enough challenge to take this from “Zootopia”.  Seems like almost “a lock”.

Foreign Language Film

“Divines” (France)

“Elle” (France)

“Neruda” (Chile)

“The Saleman (Iran/France)

“Toni Erdmann” (Germany)

Predicted Winner: “Toni Erdmann” (Germany)

This Golden Globe could easy find its way into the creative hands of either “The Saleman” or “Toni Erdmann”.  But “Elle” and the powerful performance by Isabelle Huppert placed her, and rightfully so, in the Best Actress in a Drama category.  I’d expect Huppert to give her film a slight advantage over the other foreign competitors.  Is it enough?  Probably not.  “Toni Erdmann” for the win!

 

Best Actress in a Support Role

Viola Davis, “Fences”

Naomie Harris, “Moonlight”

Nicole Kidman, “Lion”

Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures”

Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea”

Predicted Winner: Naomie Harris, “Moonlight” (pictured above)

Despite not being enthralled with either “Moonlight” or “Manchester by the Sea”, both films provided exceptional performances from their talented casts.  My vote would easily go to Viola Davis in “Fences” because the overall film is better than “Moonlight” and “Manchester by the Sea”.  “Lion” and “Hidden Figures” are the best movies on this 5-picture list, but Kidman or Spencer were outshined by other performances in their films.  And Williams?  Come on, she was barely in “Manchester by the Sea”.

 

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight”

Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water” (pictured above)

Simon Helberg, “Florence Foster Jenkins”

Dev Patel, “Lion”

Aaron Taylor-Johnson, “Nocturnal Animals”

Predicted Winner: Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water”

If Bridges doesn’t walk out with the Globe in his hands, I’m gonna be unearthing some west Texas oil lands to find out who stole it!  Yes, Mahershala Ali did a fantastic job in “Moonlight”.  He’s the real competitor for Bridges–not Chris Pine’s character in HoHW.  Let me digress for a second…. I re-watched “Hell or High Water” last month.  And the scene near the end of the movie where Bridges takes a rancher’s rifle into his own hands is amazing.  It could be studied by film classes for years.  Watch and listen to Bridges completely nail this scene.  The swirl of emotions from grief to shock to elation and back to sadness again is truly a benchmark in acting over a 3 or 4 minute period.  Unbelievable.

Original Screenplay

“Hell or High Water”

“La La Land”

“Moonlight”

“Manchester by the Sea”

 “Nocturnal Animals”

Predicted Winner: “Hell or High Water”

It’s the best storyline.  Yes, a good argument can be made for “La La Land” to take this one.  But for overall movie enjoyment and plot twists, the modern day Western about bank robbers deserves the win.  “Manchester by the Sea”, “Moonlight” and “Nocturnal Animals” all had lousy endings in my book.

Best Actress (Comedy or Musical)

Annette Bening, “20th Century Women”

Lily Collins, “Rules Don’t Apply”

Hailee Steinfeld, “The Edge of Seventeen”

Emma Stone, “La La Land”

Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins”

Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, “La La Land”

Should be an easy victory for Stone.  While “Florence Foster Jenkins” got more love from the Golden Globe nominations than most outlets, Meryl Streep’s only real path (slim) to victory would be from the Oscars next month.  However, this should be a clean kill for “La La Land” and Stone.

 

Best Actor (Comedy or Musical)

Colin Farrell, “The Lobster”

Ryan Gosling, “La La Land”

Hugh Grant, “Florence Foster Jenkins”

Jonah Hill, “War Dogs”

Ryan Reynolds, “Deadpool”

Predicted Winner: Ryan Gosling, “La La Land” (pictured below)

I’d love to see Reynolds take this for a sensational “Deadpool” but the Comedy category favors Gosling bigly. Hell, he did his own singing AND piano work!

 

Best Director

Damien Chazelle, “La La Land”

Tom Ford, “Nocturnal Animals”

Mel Gibson, “Hacksaw Ridge”

Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”

Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea”

Predicted Winner: Damien Chazelle, “La La Land”

The Golden Globes love to stand-out and be unpredictable.  Here, they could go rogue.  Safe bet is “La La Land” with yawners “Moonlight” and “Manchester by the Sea” in close trail.  But could Mel Gibson make the dramatic comeback we all love to see?  Probably not. But you never know.

Jessica Chastain stars in “Miss Sloane”

 

Best Actress (Drama)

Amy Adams, “Arrival”

Jessica Chastain, “Miss Sloane”

Isabelle Huppert, “Elle”

Ruth Negga, “Loving”

Natalie Portman, “Jackie”

Predicted Winner: Amy Adams, “Arrival”

The Golden Globe voters love Amy Adams.  And although I didn’t enjoy “Arrival”, that was through no fault of Ms. Adams’ performance.  Would love to see Chastain or Huppert take this one, but Adams’ stiffest competition comes from another slow, disjointed film…”Jackie” and Portman.

 

Best Actor (Drama)

Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea”

Joel Edgerton, “Loving”

Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge”

Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic”

Denzel Washington, “Fences”

Predicted Winner: Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea” (pictured above)

I’d expect more love given to out Washington by the Academy of Motion Arts and Sciences come Oscar Night.  While Edgerton did a great job in “Loving”, the storyline wasn’t nearly as satisfying as the movie trailer teased.  I think Affleck did amazing work in “Manchester by the Sea”, but if Gibson and “Hacksaw Ridge” catch fire tonight, look for Garfield to take this win.

 

Best Picture (Comedy or Musical)

“Deadpool”

“La La Land”

“Florence Foster Jenkins”

“Sing Street”

“20th Century Women”

Predicted Winner: “La La Land”

I like seeing “Sing Street”, “Deadpool” and “Florence Foster Jenkins” get nominated…all 3 of the movies (and “La La Land”) made my Top 10 of 2016 list.  But “La La Land” was the best comedy and musical in this group.

 

Best Picture (Drama)

“Hacksaw Ridge”

“Hell or High Water”

“Lion”

“Manchester by the Sea”

“Moonlight”

Predicted Winner: “Hell or High Water”

Hell or High Water – Texas Rangers Marcus Hamilton (Jeff Bridges) ©2016 CBS Films

This is all personal now.  I think once “La La Land” is separated from this group and placed into the Comedy/Drama category, the winner gets narrowed down to “Hacksaw Ridge”, “Hell or High Water” and “Lion”.  Since the Golden Globe Awards like to march to their own drumbeat, I’d expect them to let “Manchester by the Sea” and “Moonlight” potentially shine under the watchful eye of the more socially-conscious Academy Awards.  Thus, an edgier and more emotional film may rise up here to gain notice from viewers.  “Lion” is the most emotional film of 2016 and “Hacksaw Ridge” the most shocking on camera.  However, “Hell or High Water” gave us the best storyline and characters.

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© 2017, Patrick. All rights reserved.



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